Tulo and Nomar

These are always fun:

	PA	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	WAR
Player A	4176	1231	272	173	669	82	.323	.370	.555	.925	134	41.2
Player B	4064	1068	205	176	604	55	.299	.373	.517	.891	125	37.6

Player A is Nomar Garciaparra, through his age 29 season (2003).

Player B is Troy Tulowitzki, also through his age 29 season (current).

These two players are often talked about together, and for good reason. Not only are they statistically similar, they both have another (unfortunate) thing in common: injuries. Injury prone players often make coaches (and fans) very nervous once they hit age 30. Garciaparra is somewhat of a poster boy for this, as he was only able to accrue 1940 more plate appearances over five seasons after age 30, before bowing out at age 35. While his production only dropped slightly (he hit .291/.343/.446 in that span) his inability to stay on the field turned a once promising Hall of Fame career into a big game of what-if. 

Fans in Colorado have to wonder the same thing about their fan favorite at shortstop. Every year there is talk about the Rockies trading Tulo away, but it has yet to happen. The fans there love Tulo, but one has to wonder if his previous injury problems will catch up to him in a big way. Tulowitzki put up a 5.5 WAR just last year alone, so it seems likely that he will eclipse the 3.0 WAR that Garciaparra put up in his 30's. However, his value might not get much higher than it is right now, and the glut of prospects the Rockies could get in return may make it worth it.

It felt like robbery when the baseball world was not able to see a healthy Nomar in his 30's. His prime was as good or better than Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, and without injuries he could have had a career that cemented himself as one of the best hitting shortstops of all time. Even with his injury-riddled 30's, Garciaparra still got 5.5% of the BBWAA voters to vote for him as a HOFer, meaning he will get to stay on the Hall of Fame ballot for next year. 

Tulowitzki could be baseball's redemption for our loss of Nomar. If he is able to fight off the injury bug, his career could take the path that we know Nomar's could have, vaulting him into the ranks as one of the better shortstops the game has ever seen, and earning him the plaque that Nomar should have earned. Of course, this is a massive if, for a few reasons. One - as we look at the stats above, they are indeed comparable but Nomar is better in nearly every category. So even if Tulo is able to continue to play, he may not be what Nomar could have been. Again though, he could more than make up for that in his 30's. The big if is of course the injuries. If Tulo can stay healthy, his ceiling could reach the upper echelon of big, power hitting shortstops. The Alan Trammell, Barry Larkin, Nomar Garciaparra prototype could live on through a guy like Tulo (although comparing him to the games greatest (clean) power hitting SS, Cal Ripken Jr, seems comical because of his "iron man" reputation). 

I hope Troy Tulowitzki can stay healthy and show us the Garciaparra that we never had, if only because I hate seeing careers derailed by injuries. No one likes the what-if game.

The Hall of Fame Fallout and Congrats

Four of the greatest players I have ever watched play baseball in my lifetime received a call this morning that they will be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. While there is a lot to talk about regarding the ballot, the voters, the rules for induction etc, I want to first congratulate Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez and Craig Biggio for getting the call to Cooperstown. Ultimately, this day should be about celebrating their accomplishments on the field, and boy are there a lot of them. It's not every year that you get to see 3000 hits, 3000 strikeouts, 300 wins, 200 wins/100 saves, and multiple pitching triple crown seasons inducted in the same year. Seeing the three pitchers get in on the first ballot was excellent, and Biggio's name was finally heard, after having to wait three years too long for a guy who had 3000 hits and has the most doubles of all-time by a right handed hitter. A huge congrats to the four of them.

Upon seeing the ballot results for the first time, my mind raced with a whole lot of different thoughts, reactions, questions, and so on, and I am going to use this outlet to voice all of them in a stream of consciousness type of setting. As always, please comment or ask questions, I love debating these things!

First thought: Four players going in and one player falling off the ballot (Don Mattingly, who received 50 votes this year) really helps clear up the ballot for the class of 2016. There were certainly voters who used 5 of their 10 votes this year on Randy Pedro Smoltz Biggio and Mattingly, who will now have much more space on their 2016 ballot. Next years ballot will have only one no doubt, must vote for player in the person of Ken Griffey jr. After that, Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner and Jim Edmonds will all garner some attention, but do not carry nearly the firepower that a class like Randy, Pedro, Smoltz, Carlos Delgado, Gary Sheffield and Nomar Garciaparra does. (Troy Glaus, Garrett Anderson and Jason Kendall deserve some love, although not as realistic HOF candidates).

This ballot cleanse should be a breath of fresh air for Mike Piazza, who has a very good chance of gaining the additional 5% he needs to be in the Hall next year. It is also good news for +50% guys Jeff Bagwell (55%) and Tim Raines (55%). Theoretically, the voters who typically use all 10 of their votes should have four new openings on their ballot, with one of their votes going to Griffey. Hoffman seems likely to get over 50% and possibly enough to go in, so voters still will have two additional votes that are likely to go to guys like Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Fred McGriff, Larry Walker and Alan Trammell, who all have seen their support limited by the overcrowding of the ballot and the asinine, outdated "rule of 10". Many, many BBWAA writers who posted their ballots expressed their frustration with not being able to vote for players they feel deserve HOF enshrinement, including Tim Kurkjian, who came on ESPN this morning and admitted that he "lost sleep" over not voting for Mike Mussina, Alan Trammell and Edgar Martinez. It seems that next year Timmy will be able to pick a couple of those guys for his ballot.

Second thought (That was a long first thought): What hat will Randy Johnson wear into the Hall of Fame?

The first three are easy: Pedro goes in as a Red Sock(Sox?), Biggio as an Astro, and Smoltz as a Brave. But then we get to Randy.

Randy Johnson spent the majority of his career with two organizations, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Seattle Mariners. His resume with Arizona slightly outdoes his Seattle one, but his legacy seems to be most associated with the Mariners. Ultimately the choice is Randy's and if he goes with his heart I think Seattle will be the choice. They are the team that gave him his start, and really taught him how to be a pitcher, not just a thrower. He would not have been the pitcher he was in Arizona if not for his coaches in Seattle. Having said that, winning back to back to back to back (!) Cy Young awards, a pitching triple crown and a WS with the Dbacks will be tough to turn down. My hope is that he goes in as a Mariner, my prediction is that he goes in as a Mariner, but my fear is that he goes in without picking a team, like Greg Maddux did last year. I personally think that is a cop-out, and I hope that Randy at leasts picks a team, even if it is Arizona.

Third thought: Which 49 voters didn't vote for Pedro Martinez?

Every once in a while a player comes along who is very apparently a step above everyone else. These are once in a generation talents, guys who seem to defy all laws and simply dominate. Yet, in the history of Hall of Fame voting, not a single player has been elected to the Hall of Fame unanimously. Tom Seaver received 98.8% of the vote in 1992, which remains the highest percentage in voting history. With all due respect to Tom, what did Cal Ripken, Stan Musial, Roberto Clemente, Mickey Mantle, Greg Maddux, Willie Mays and Hank Aaron need to do to get 100% of the votes? 5000 hits? 900 home runs? Sadly, the reason that Willie Mays and Hank Aaron were left off of ballots is very likely tied to old voters who refused to vote for them based on the color of their skin. While tragic, this reflects a cultural shift that is (hopefully) no longer impacting voters. At least that is what I thought, until today when I saw that 34 more ballots were cast for Randy Johnson than Pedro Martinez. 34 people who felt that Randy Johnson was a HOFer, but not Pedro Martinez. Is Randy a better candidate than Pedro? Probably, but only slightly. I don't see any rationale for saying Randy Johnson deserves it, but not Pedro. I cannot prove that any of the voters who did not vote for Pedro did it because they are racist, because I have not seen any of them come out and publicly defend their ballot. Which leads me to my next thought.

Fourth thought: Why aren't ballots published?

Voters have never been required to disclose their ballots to the public. Many current writers choose to post their ballots on twitter or other social media, and some choose to write articles as well. However, well over 45% never disclose their ballot, meaning that discrepancies like the one listed above are never answered. I want to know who did not vote for Pedro, because they should have a chance to have their say in court. If they chose not to vote for him simply because they didn't like him, or because they are bigoted, shouldn't the HOF consider not allowing them to vote? The two guys who voted for Aaron Boone this year? The guy who voted for Jacque Jones last year? I want to know who they are. If the guys who voted for Aaron Boone chose to only vote for Boone, or voted for ten guys (including Boone) but left off someone like Tim Raines or Carlos Delgado (who just missed getting enough votes to stay on the ballot) I want to know, and I want the BBWAA to seriously consider revoking their voting privileges. If they have some logical reason for making that decision, and they publish it defending themselves, than so be it. But to hide behind anonymity and cast a ballot that seems to mock the entire system is cowardly and devalues the system put in place by the Hall of Fame to induct the games greats. I hate thinking that if I had a ballot I would take it more seriously that a large chunk of the people who vote, but knowing that some of the voters have voted for candidates like Boone, Jones and Armando Benitez makes me feel like I would.

Final thoughts:

I love talking about the Hall of Fame. I love debating each candidates case for induction, comparing players, looking at highlights, and making predictions for each year. I do not love seeing many of my favorite baseball writers agonizing over who to choose, because the ballot is so stuffed with talent and they can only choose to elect ten players per year. Seeing guys like Buster Olney, Jayson Stark, Tim Kurkjian and Ken Rosenthal publically denounce the rule of 10 and cry out for a new system that allows them to vote for who they want should send a huge message. These four are some of the most intelligent baseball minds in the world right now, and for them to say "I want to vote for Alan Trammell but I can't" should speak volumes about the flaws in the system.

I also hate the current situation that steroids are playing in the voting process. Either the HOF needs to come out and say that they do not want known users in the Hall and remove Bonds/Clemens/Sosa/McGwire/Sheffield from the ballot, or they need to acknowledge their use and tell the voters to vote based purely on stats, basically nullifying the "integrity of the game" rule in the voting process (I still believe that many writers would continue not to vote for Bonds and Clemens, but making the vote public would at least put everyone in the public eye). If those names get cleared off of the ballot, and the voters are allowed to vote for as many candidates as they want, and each voter must publicize their ballot, we are going to see a dramatic change in many players voting totals, including Edgar, Raines, Jeff Bagwell, etc... Unfortunately none of these changes seem imminent, and we are most likely going to be looking at a crowded ballot, a ten vote limit, and about half of the ballots being closed from the public eye for 2016. Won't stop me from continuing to blog about the HOF and discuss it with anyone who will listen. This brings me to my last point:

My 2016 Ballot and predictions: 

I will change my ballot between today and January 5th of 2016. I might change it tomorrow even. But looking at the new candidates for 2016 and the layovers from this ballot, here is who I anticipate "voting" for in 2016:

Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell
Mike Mussina
Fred McGriff
Ken Griffey Jr
Trevor Hoffman


This is preliminary, and I will need to take a closer look at Jim Edmonds, Billy Wagner, Jason Kendall and Troy Glaus, but I believe that these are the ten candidates who most deserve enshrinement next year. I feel bad leaving off Larry Walker and Jeff Kent, just as I felt bad leaving off great candidates this year, but at least next year won't be quite as bad.

As for a prediction, I think Griffey, Piazza and Trevor Hoffman will be inducted. Somewhat bold on Hoffman, especially when you consider the voting results for Lee Smith, but Hoffman and Mariano Rivera redefined the closer position and deserve recognition for that. Griffey is a no brainer, and Piazza does not need too much more support to gain induction. Another year of 3 inductees would do wonders for the clearing of the ballot. Here's to hoping we can see that.

Congrats again to four of the best players the game has ever seen, and enjoy your immortality in Cooperstown among the greats.

Mike Mussina vs. Curt Schilling

On Tuesday the Baseball Hall of Fame will announce new members for it's 2015 class. Early reports appear to indicate that Randy Johnson Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz will enter the Hall on their first try, with Craig Biggio and Mike Piazza potentially joining them as well. (The tracker can be found here: ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmkBNPY405WAdFBOUVBhbjNRZjYzbWI2d201bm0tSmc&usp=sharing#gid=16 )

Earlier this month I posted who I would vote for-should I have a ballot. The post can be found here, but the ten players I selected were Randy Johnson, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, Pedro Martinez, Mike Piazza, Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines, John Smoltz and Mike Mussina. I also mentioned that I believe Carlos Delgado, Larry Walker, Alan Trammell and Curt Schilling are all HOF caliber players. I have been closely tracking the HOF ballots of other people, and have been re-evaluating my ballot as well (Unlike actual BBWAA writers who submit their ballot, I can go back and make changes). The closest battle in my mind was between fellow starting pitchers Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling. I went with Mussina in my original ballot, having studied his career and determined he was hall worthy. However, I do not feel that I did adequate research on Schilling, and I want to spend some time comparing the two of them, to see who should earn a spot on my (sadly fictional) ballot!

First off, here are their career numbers:

Schilling is listed first with Mussina right below. The two striking differences are the Win total and the strikeout numbers. Mussina had 270 wins compared to only 216 for Schilling. I have been very adamant about the over valuing of wins for pitchers, and this situation is no different. Schilling played on some very bad teams early in his career in Philadelphia, whereas Mussina was on the Orioles and the Yankees on years where they were very successful. As you can see by the ERA and WHIP numbers, each were very good at getting batters out and keeping teams from scoring. Mussina earning 54 more wins than Schilling is not necessarily a reflection of his superior talent.

Schilling struck out 3116 batters, compared to 2813 for Mussina. This is especially notable when you consider that Mussina threw 301 innings more than Schilling, and started 100 more games. The 8.6 K/9 for Schilling is substantially higher than the 7.1 for Mussina, although they were both above average strikeout artists.

The rest of their stats are extremely similar, to the point where it is hard to tell them apart. Schilling had 26 more complete games, a large difference but in a relatively meaningless stat.

Ultimately, I believe both of these players are Hall of Famers. They are slightly above the camp of great starters who fall just short of Hall worthy, such as David Cone, David Wells, or Bret Saberhagen. (although on the same level as Kevin Brown, a notable absence from the Hall). If I had to pick, I think I would change and submit my last vote for Curt Schilling instead of Mike Mussina. They are extremely close and it hurts me to pick Curt instead, as I have always liked Mussina, but he is a (slightly) more deserving candidate.

Tomorrow is the big day - less than 24 hours until Randy and Pedro (and hopefully a couple of other guys) will hear their name called for the Hall. Good luck to all the candidates!

Christmas themed line-up

1. Rudolph the Red Nosed Reindeer - CF

Rudolph is a historically significant character because he was ostracized by his peers, treated differently because of a physical difference and not allowed to participate in the "Reindeer games". However, his natural leadership ability and blazing speed allowed him to be successful. Because of this, I liken Rudolph to another historically important person, former Negro League's centerfielder Cool Papa Bell. Rudolph will use his light to man a great centerfield and his speed to get on base, although I am not sure what he will use to swing the stick. Baseball-Reference actually likes Rudolph as a Shortstop, as seen here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/reindeer/rudolph.shtml
If he can put up the steals numbers that baseball-reference suggests he might, than we will be just fine.

2. Clarence Odbody (It's A Wonderful Life) - RF

At a still young 239 years old, Mr. Odbody finally acquired his wings through a ringing of a bell on the Bailey's family tree. This newfound flying ability should play very well in right field, where him and Rudolph should catch anything in sight. No mention of his hitting abilities were made in the film, but an Angel from heaven is probably given some strength and hand-eye coordination (one would hope). As an old, speedy right fielder with questionable hitting abilities, Clarence seems akin to a modern day Ichiro Suzuki. One can only hope that Ichiro will somehow find his wings this year and reach 3000 MLB hits.

3. Frosty the Snowman - 1B

Frosty's skills at the plate and in the field will obviously depend on keeping his hat on throughout the game, and of course the cold temperatures to prevent him from melting. His particular needs on the field are very similar to that of former Blue Jays and Mariners first baseman John Olerud. Olerud played primarily in cold temperatures, and of course was known for wearing his helmet out in the field to protect his soft cranium. Here's to hoping that Frosty can hit .363 with 107 RBI's, as Olerud did in 1993.

4. Santa Claus - DH

Santa Claus, aka Kris Kringle, aka Saint Nicholas, aka Father Christmas, will be a staple in this line-up for years to come, just as he has been a staple on Christmas day for generations. Santa's supreme upper body strength (he's been lifting a sack with millions of toys in it for years) should play well as a power hitter. There are obvious questions about his conditioning and endurance, as he is only accustomed to working one day a year. However, I believe that his raw power and leadership should help anchor this squad. I believe his potential ranges anywhere from Adam Dunn (Tim Allen in the Santa Claus status) to a Babe Ruth (Bad Santa or Futurama's robotic santa).

Santa's left-handed swing sure does look good

5. John McClane - 2B

John McClane, Bruce Willis' famed character from the epic Christmas classic Die Hard, is the kind of take no attitude character this team needs. Frosty and Clarence are great, but every team needs someone who is got some arrogance about them. John McClane's off putting personality and general aggressiveness, combined with his pure strength from NYPD police training, make him an ideal candidate to be a power hitting second baseman, similar to former Giants two bagger Jeff Kent. Kent hit 377 round trippers, most ever for a 2B, and his surly personality and general disregard for social norms mirror the character traits of John McClane. 

Yippie Ki yay

6. George Bailey - SS

It's a Wonderful life get's two representatives in our starting line-up, as Clarence Odbody would not have gotten his wings without the help of lovable George Bailey. Bailey demonstrates early in the film his amazing dancing abilities, and after watching his quick footwork I determined he would be an ideal candidate to man the six hole at shortstop. Again, it is hard to say what his bat would look like, but his footwork and steady hands should make him a defense first infielder, a la former Cardinals shortstop the Wizard of Oz, aka Ozzie Smith. Bailey's mental insecurities could hurt him a bit if he falls into a slump, but hopefully having Clarence around as a mentor will help Bailey feel as if he is a necessary and valuable part of this team. 

That screams double play ball to me.

7. The Grinch - C

Every team has a pariah, and the Christmas team would not be complete without token Christmas hater the Grinch. Although Grinchy would probably despise being a member of this squad, his resourcefulness and creativity, along with his strength and clear squatting ability (as seen below) make him an ideal candidate to catch. After all, any opposing player barreling into home would want to think twice about sliding hard into Christmases evil spirit. Grinch reminds me a lot of another catcher that is generally not well liked by his teammates, current Atlanta Braves catcher A.J. Pierzynski. Grinch seems likely to at least draw a lot of HBP, if he proves he cannot hit (Also similar to Pierzynski).

Looks like a natural behind the dish.

8. Eddie Johnson (National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation) - 3B

Cousin Eddie, the outrageous relative of Clark Griswold, is a mainstay for any Christmas type list. His cooky belief system and simple ways are traits that fit in well with every baseball team. Teams need someone who at any moment could say something outrageous and quotable, and what is more memorable than quotes like "Save me the neck, Clark" or "I don't know if I should go sailing down no hill with nothing between the ground and my brains but a piece of government plastic".

Although they do not play the same position, Eddie and his antics remind me a lot of post playing Jose Canseco, a character who at any time could bust into a random, unintelligible rant (See Canseco's twitter account if you need more proof). Regardless, Eddie seems like a strong dude and his reckless attitude could provide some interesting stories, if not much on the field.

Kinda looks like Canseco too.

9. Olive the Other Reindeer - LF

Olive, the main character from Matt Groening's Christmas classic of the same name, is a determined dog who believes, due to a misinterpretation of the radio, that she is the only reindeer that can help save Christmas. Olive sets out on a journey and ends up using her pluck and charm to help save the gang and give everyone their gifts, including giving the Pope a Phillies hat (I have no idea why). I have always found that teams sometimes need a player who, even if they are not the most talented player on the team, can help motivate everyone by simply being themselves. Olive will hit last in the line-up and play LF, the easiest position on the field, but her love of Christmas and never-give-up attitude will do nothing but positive things for the team, much like former Angels middle infielder David Eckstein. Eckstein was undersized and not the most gifted, but he got the job done when it needed to be. Olive can fill a similar role for this team. 

As long as Olive doesn't bring Drew Barrymore.

Jesus Christ - SP

I feel that other teams would already have a hard time against this lineup with the monstrous strength of Santa and Frosty, and the blazing speed of Clarence and Rudolph. However, they will have an even harder time at the plate against the Prodigal son, Jesus Christ. Jesus is in his prime at age 29, and his ability to heal himself and others (and rise from the dead) seems to give him an unfair advantage, even more than the advantage steroids gave pitchers like Roger Clemens. Jesus has worked with his hands most of his life, and his general strength and killer abs seems to indicate he would have a real blazing fastball. His endless endurance means he will be able to throw very large amounts of innings, and it seems almost pointless to have a full rotation.

Scott Farkus - CP

Even with Jesus' healing abilities, it is always necessary to have relief help in case the Lord can't seem to work himself out of a jam. Relievers are often known for their very eccentric personalities, and the scariest, most intimidating guys already have an advantage without even throwing a pitch. Enter the villain from Christmases greatest film, A Christmas Story. The haunting line "He has yellow eyes, YELLOW EYES!" speak volumes about this bullies fear inducing stare. Farkus shows some upper body strength when he gets into a punching fight with his small accomplice, and that coupled with his personality scream first rate closer. However, his bark seems to be worse than his bite, as Ralphie is easily able to take him down in a fight. Because of this, I compare him closely to displaced closer Grant Balfour, a man with an intense personality who has crumbled when actually faced with some adversity. Here's to hoping our Farkus can perform at a level higher than Balfour did in 2014.

The squad is complete. I feel this teams combination of strength and speed and the Lord's ability on the mound make this a team that could win all year around. I am thinking our team logo will have to be the infamous leg lamp from A Christmas story, perhaps something like the hat below:

Merry Christmas everybody! Have a great holiday, and may all your baseball wishes come true!

Christmas pitch wish list

With Christmas fast approaching, it is that time of year when kids (from one to ninety-two) begin to fantasize about what gifts they will find under the tree on Christmas morning. As a lifelong baseball fan, I have yearned for everything baseball related under the sun: baseball cards, autographs, posters, bobbleheads, bats, gloves, tickets, etc. and I have acquired a huge collection of memorabilia. However, as a left-handed pitcher who never quite touched 80 mph, a lot of my talent wish list was never fulfilled. So I present to you my Christmas pitch wish list, a collection of the five dream pitches that I wish I had in my arsenal. Equipped with this collection of heaters and hammers, no hitter is safe.

1. Randy Johnson's fastball

The Big Unit, a surefire HOFer when the ballot is announced in early January, was known for his looming, 6'10 frame, scary demeanor, great slider and excellent strikeout numbers, but was known primarily for his wicked upper 90's fastball. With a 6'10 frame, Johnson was able to explode down the mound and release his heater six or seven feet closer to home plate, giving hitters roughly .38 seconds to make a decision (or to get out of the way). In the case of the bird casually flying through the infield one Spring Training game in 2001, he had even less time, and unfortunately did not make the right decision:

2. Jeremy Bonderman's Slider

Randy Johnson's fastball was a pretty obvious choice, so I'm taking a less heralded slider in the form of former Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman, aka Mr. Snappy. Armed with a mid to high 90's fastball, Bonderman was able to use his fastball to set-up his very nasty slider. Bonderman's slider was around 81-84 mph, and had an incredible late break that made it extremely hard to hit. According to fangraphs, Bonderman saved about 1.42 runs per every 100 sliders that he threw (a solid explanation of this can be found here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/interpreting-pitchfx-data/) Effectively this means that his slider was substantially above average throughout his career. Statistics can only prove so much, however, so I turn to video for the rest: 

Nasty

3. Trevor Hoffman's change-up.

It is pretty rare, especially in today's game, for a closer to rely on a change-up the way Hoffman did. However, Hoffman's change-up was nasty enough to help him become the MLB's first 600 save man. Take a look at this chart showing the average movement (From the side portrait) of both Hoffman's fastball and his change-up: 

This chart shows the nearly identical trajectory both his fastball and changeup took, making it that much more difficult to recognize out of his hand. 

Hoffman finished his career with a 9.36 K/9 and was able to hold hitters to a .208 average for his career, thanks largely in part to his devastating change-up.

4. Mariano Rivera's cutter

Quite possibly the most devastating pitch in the history of the Major Leagues, Mariano Rivera relied on one pitch for his entire MLB career, his cutter. Rivera finished with an 8.22 K/9 and held batters to a .209 batting average, en route to an all time high 652 saves. Rivera had previously relied more on his fastball, but later in his career began to use the cutter more and more, eventually leading to his final season in 2013 where he threw his cutter a whopping 89.2% of the time. Interestingly enough, Rivera averaged 92 mph on his cutter, compared to 93.2 on his fastball. Considering the movement his cutter had compared to his fastball, it is not surprising to see him move toward making the cutter his number one pitch. 

5. Kazuhiro Sasaki Split-finger AKA "The Thang"

I had a really hard time selecting my fifth pitch. I considered adding a big, heavy curveball to compliment the hard cutter/slider that I already have. I looked heavily at curveballs from Bert Blyleven, Kenny Rogers, Barry Zito, and Clayton Kershaw; and the 12-6 hammers of Justin Verlander and Tim Lincecum. I also looked at two seam fastballs, including Jeff Nelson, Greg Maddux, Brandon League and Felix Hernandez. Other splitters considered included Bruce Sutter and Hisashi Iwakuma, and even knuckleballers Phil Niekro, RA Dickey and Tim Wakefield were given some thought. 

Eventually though, I settled on a pitch that earned it's own nickname, having simply been called "The Thang". It may seem odd to select a pitch by a pitcher who earned 7 career wins and only threw 233 innings in his career, but Sasaki very quickly earned a reputation as a dominant closer, mainly because of the effectiveness of his split finger. Sasaki threw his splitty roughly 40% of the time, and the average of 84 mph along with the devastating drop that it had would create quite a deadly combination along with the other pitches already established.

Hitters from either side of the plate would have an extremely hard time handling the heat by Johnson, the late, sharp movement on Rivera's cutter and Bonderman's slider, and the devastating drop on Hoffman's change-up and Sasaki's split finger.

Merry Christmas everyone! And may all your Christmas wishes come true, whether it's for a iPad or a 92 mph cutter.

My ballot for the 2015 class

Well, its December again and that means that conversation will turn to the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, and voters will be deciding who they do and do not want inducted into Cooperstown. A new rule change takes place this year, with players only allowed to be on the ballot for ten years, as opposed to the previous 15 years allowed. Lee Smith, Alan Trammell and Don Mattingly all will be allowed to stay on the ballot until they reach the 15 year plateau (for Mattingly that is this year) but this move severely impacts both Mark McGwire (9th) and Tim Raines (8th) who now only have one and two years left, respectively, as opposed to the six and seven they would have had before.
Additionally, this ballot provides a boat-load of new talent, including three excellent arms in Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and John Smoltz, and some great hitters such as Carlos Delgado, Jermaine Dye, Brian Giles and Nomar Garciaparra. So without further ado, let's look at this ballot and discuss.

With every ballot, the first step I always take is to find the "ballot fillers", guys who have virtually no chance of making the Hall, and will almost certainly get below the 5% necessary to remain on the ballot. For this year, that list includes:


Rich Aurilia
Aaron Boone
Tony Clark
Darin Erstad
Cliff Floyd
Tom Gordon
Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival
Jason Schmidt

All fine players, none who are deserving of Hall of Fame consideration (The only one on this list who I would investigate further would be Troy Percival, but relievers need to be very top tier in order to get enshrined, and Percival was not quite there).

We are now left with 25 names, and only ten spots on the ballot. I'll go ahead and eliminate a few more in a "Close but no Cigar category". These are guys who are very talented, and who I could easily see gaining votes, but who I believe fall short of being Hall of Famers.


Jermaine Dye
Nomar Garciaparra*
Brian Giles
Don Mattingly
Lee Smith

*I wrote a good piece about Nomar Garciaparra's candidacy on my old blog, the link can be found here.

20 names, ten spots left. At this point I have to acknowledge the elephant in the Hall of Fame voting "room", the steroid users. The voting rules for the Baseball Hall of Fame state this:

"Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played".

Because of this, I do not believe in voting for players who are admitted cheaters to the game of baseball. This becomes tricky, obviously, as there is a good chance certain players will be inducted (or have already been inducted) who did steroids, while guys like Bonds and Clemens will not get in. I know it is a sticky situation, but if I had a ballot I would leave off the players who are known steroid users, in order to give my vote to other deserving players who did not cheat (or at least were not caught). So this eliminates:

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mark McGwire
Gary Sheffield
Sammy Sosa

15 names, ten spots. This is where things become tricky. At this point, the names that are left (Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Carlos Delgado, Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Pedro Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Alan Trammell, and Larry Walker) are all worthy Hall of Fame candidates, at least in my opinion. However, the rules state that I can only vote in ten players, so the cutting ceremony must begin. As I re-read the rules for enshrinement, the statements about integrity and character jump out to me. Jeff Kent, the most powerful second basemen of all time, gets bumped off my ballot simply because he did not respect the game of baseball, was gruff and disrespectful to the media, and was a very poor teammate. I believe that he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and if I had more room I would vote for him, but with my ballot already feeling crowded I can't in good conscience vote for him over other deserving players. That leaves me with 14 guys.

Here is who I would select, out of my pool of 14 players remaining, as Hall of Famers for the 2015 class, presented in alphabetical order:

Jeff Bagwell - 449 home runs and an OBP of .408 make Bags a surefire HOFer.
Craig Biggio - over 3000 hits, 5th all-time in doubles. Shame he did not get in last year.
Randy Johnson - No-Brainer, quite possibly the best LHP of all time, Unit will be a first ballot guy no doubt.
Edgar Martinez - Best DH of all-time. His hitting numbers are simply outstanding. Absolutely no reason he gets punished for playing a legitimate MLB position. It's time to change this vendetta against DH's. Thomas started it last year, it's Edgar's turn now.
Pedro Martinez - Another no-brainer, Pedro was simply electrifying. I look forward to hearing his HOF speech.
Fred McGriff - A 1994 strike away from having over 500 home runs and a 4 year old plaque in Cooperstown.
Mike Mussina - Moose was absolutely dominant, and his 270 wins and 3.68 ERA are among the best of the steroid era. Him and Schilling were very close, but I give a slight edge to Moose.
Mike Piazza - Best hitting catcher of all-time. Most HR by a catcher dwarves his very average defense behind the dish.
Tim Raines - Career OBP of .385 is obscene. If not for Rickey Henderson, the rock would have been considered one of the best lead-off hitters ever, but he was constantly overshadowed. (Drug problems may be costing him some votes as well).
John Smoltz - The modern day Dennis Eckersley, Smoltz had over 3000 K's while playing a few seasons as a closer. His 213 wins and 154 saves prove his dominance both as a starter and out of the pen.

With tremendous respect to the 473 home runs hit by Carlos Delgado, the 3116 strikeouts and one bloody sock by Curt Schilling, the 70.4(!) WAR by Alan Trammell, and the amazing five tool talent of Larry Walker, they will have to wait until the ballot clears up a bit more to get my vote (which is frightening for Trammell, as he does not have a lot of time left).

For what it is worth, if I had to predict who I think will go in next year, I would say that Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Craig Biggio will all be inducted next year. I think Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza and John Smoltz will all receive over 50% of the votes, but not enough to get in.

As always, I love having conversations about this topic. The ballot nowadays is rife with talent, and while the Hall of Fame voting has been filled with controversy surrounding Bonds and Clemens, I always welcome conversation about any of the candidates. Thanks for reading, please leave comments!

Assessing my 2014 predictions

Hello!
This is now my third blog attempt, as my first two are no longer accessible for various reasons. My most recent blog can be found at thegeneral13.blogspot.com, but due to an email change is no longer accessible by me. So I am starting anew! Last year, before the 2014 MLB season began, I made 15 predictions for the upcoming season. I am going to list them here so we can see how I did! (Hint: Not Great).

1. Miguel Cabrera wins the 2014 MVP award, but not the triple crown. 0/1

I was correct (in a sense) that Miguel Cabrera did not win the triple crown, however he also only finished 9th in MVP voting after somewhat of a down year for the slugger. Cabrera's triple crown numbers were 25/109/.313, which is very good, however he finished 7th in batting average, 2nd in RBI's and outside the top 10 in HR. Mike Trout took home the MVP award, and deservingly so.

2. Chris Davis will hit less than 35 home runs this year. 1/2

Chris Davis finished the 2013 season with 53 home runs, so predicting such a big power drop was rather bold. However, Davis finished 2014 with only 26 home runs, after struggling most of the year and eventually being suspended 25 games for aderall use.



3. Taijuan Walker wins the AL Rookie of the Year award. 1/3

This prediction was made somewhat lazily, as I did not take into account both Jose Abreu and Masahiro Tanaka, who finished 1st and 5th, respectively. Walker did not place, as he only threw 38 innings last season due to injury and some conflict between him and Mariners manager Lloyd McLendon. I also predicted that Nick Castellanos (8th) and James Paxton (NR) would be Walker's main competition. Definitely incorrect here.

4. Robinson Cano suffers a home run drought, but still hits over .300. 2/4

Robinson Cano finished his first year in Seattle with a .314 average and only 14 home runs, firmly inside the prediction that I made. Cano had quite a few more singles than previous years, but a .314 average and a .382 on base percentage will continue to make Cano an invaluable piece to this Mariners team, and one of the most valuable second basemen in the game.



5. Brian McCann hits over 30 home runs for the first time in his career. 2/5

Brian McCann finished his first season in New York with 23 home runs, tied for the second most of his career. He still fell short of the 30 that I predicted, possibly because of an early season DL-stint.

6. Derek Jeter plays over 100 games this season, and hits over .280. 2/6

Derek Jeter played in 145 games in 2014, accruing 634 plate appearances. He only hit .256, but the memories and milestones he set last season were beyond measure.

7. CC Sabathia outpitches Mashahiro Tanaka this season. 2/7

Sabathia: 3-4, 5.28 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 46 innings, 48/10 K/BB ratio
Tanaka: 13-5, 2.77 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 136 innings, 141/21 K/BB ratio

Nope.

8. Justin Verlander rebounds from a poor 2013 season and wins the AL Cy Young award. 2/8

Verlander took a huge step backward in 2014, finishing 15-12 with a 4.54 ERA (his highest since 2008) and only 159 strikeouts, his lowest full season total since 2006. Here's to continuing to hope for a bounce back for the guy.

9. Eric Hosmer wins the AL batting title, with a .324 batting average. 2/9

Eric Hosmer his .270 last year, which is quite a ways off of the .324 I predicted. This was a self claimed crazy prediction, but I was still expecting more out of the young first baseman.

10. Matt Kemp wins comeback player of the year award, finishes top 5 in NL MVP voting. 2/10

Casey McGehee from the Pirates ended up winning the award, and Kemp was not a Top 5 MVP candidate, but he did make somewhat of a bounce back and landed himself a job on the rebuilding San Diego Padres.

11. Yasiel Puig does not finish in the top 15 for MVP voting, begins his slow fade into obscurity. 3/11

Yasiel Puig finished 19th in MVP voting, and while the fans voted him a starting OF in the All-Star game, "Puig-mania" has definitely slowed down since his debut in 2013.



12. Yankees, Tigers, Rangers win their respective divisions, Athletics and Red Sox play for the Wild card. 5/16

Orioles, Tigers, Angels ended up being the winners, with of course the up and coming Royals as the wild card winner over the A's. So 2/5 for a total of 5/16

13. Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers win their respective divisions. Padres and Braves play for the Wild Card. 8/21

Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers was a perfect 3/3. Giants and Pirates were in the Wild Card game, so 0/2 there. 3/5, total is 8/21.

14. Tigers and Nationals play for the World Series. 8/23

0/2 - 8/23

15. Tigers win in 6. 8/24

Nope. 

Here's to hoping I make better predictions for next season!